1) Driver supply remains tight — but targeted training funding is easing the gap
Demand for CDL drivers is still high across the U.S. and in Oregon. State and local investments (grants to community colleges and CDL programs) are being used to increase pipeline capacity, but full relief will take time because trainees must complete classroom, behind-the-wheel, and experience requirements. Expect continued hiring competition and wage pressure through 2026.
What it means: higher driver wages end recruiting/retention investments will remain a major line-item for carriers in 2025.
2) Clean-truck rules are forcing a near-term shift in vehicle supply and purchasing choices
Oregon’s Advanced Clean Trucks / related DEQ actions (aligned with California’s framework) push manufacturers and fleets toward increased ZEV availability and reporting requirements starting in the mid-2020s. This creates near-term uncertainty for fleets deciding whether to buy new diesel trucks now or wait for more ZEV models, and increases the importance of planning for charging/fueling infrastructure.
What it means: expect capital planning conversations and pilot purchases of battery/truck electrics for local and regional routes in 2025 — plus growing need for site electrification or alternative fuel strategies.
3) Operating costs are high (non-fuel costs rising) and carriers are squeezing margins
Recent industry analyses show the industry’s average cost per mile and that non-fuel marginal costs are at record highs — squeezing carrier margins even where fuel costs moderate. This amplifies pressure to reduce empty miles, improve utilization, and adopt cost-saving telematics/route optimization.
What it means: carriers will invest more in load-matching tech, backhaul optimization, and partnerships (brokers, digital freight marketplaces) to improve turns per driver and reduce per-mile cost.
4) Ports, terminals and drayage dynamics heavily influence regional trucking economics
Port and terminal performance (turn times, congestion) directly affects drayage carriers’ productivity and costs. Recent studies for the Portland terminal and other port planning work show that terminal layout, congestion fees, and intermodal choices materially change how many trips drivers can make — and thus carrier economics. Congestion or terminal inefficiency can push cargo toward longer drayage, higher per-trip costs, or diversion to other ports.
What it means: carriers and shippers should monitor terminal improvements and consider scheduling, dwell-time reduction strategies, or alternate routing to preserve margins.
5) Technology & automation: AI, telematics and marginal automation adoption accelerate
Fleets are increasingly deploying telematics, AI-driven routing, and digital freight platforms to reduce empty miles and improve reliability. Longer-term interest in partial automation and platooning continues, but near-term returns are coming from software that improves asset utilization and reduces fuel/operating cost per mile.
What it means: even small and mid-sized carriers can see tangible ROI from telematics and AI freight matching in 12–18 months — and should pilot those tools now.